Also let us not forget, Australia set a new continent-wide low temperature just a few short months ago
Australia records hottest winter on record, summer tipped to be hotter
Cathy Alexander The Herald Sun, Australia
September 01, 2009 12:53pm
UPDATE 5.11pm: BELIEVE it or not, the nation has just sweated through its hottest August on record … but don’t blame climate change.
The bureau boffins described it as most extraordinary” as temperatures crept above 38 degrees in some areas.
And winter as a whole came within a whisker of being the warmest of record – it was just 0.01 of a degree cooler than the record-holder, 1996.
Blair Trewin, a climate scientist with the bureau, said the warm weather was caused by a lack of large frontal systems sweeping up from the southern oceans, which would have brought cool air.
Instead, persistent high pressure systems hung about the subtropics.
Dr Trewin said the heatwaves were caused more by natural variability than by climate change.
Climate change had pushed up temperatures by about 0.8 of a degree over the past century but August came in at more than two degrees above average.
“The set-up we had this month would have given us an extremely warm month whether it happened 100 years ago or it happened now,” Dr Trewin told AAP.
“There’s a lot of natural variability but you’ve got a climate change signal on top of that.”
And there’s no end in sight to the warm weather – the Bureau is forecasting a hot, dry spring because of warm conditions in the Pacific and Indian oceans.
Australia’s east coast suffered an unusual lack of frontal systems during August, which usually blow cooler air into the region.
Areas of south-east Queensland and northern NSW have been regularly breaking August records, with Evans Head on the far north NSW coast sweltering through a state record of 36.8 degrees last week.
“Hot air has just built up and built up … without any breaks,” Dr Trewin said, adding it could mean Australia is in for more above-average temperatures during spring and summer.
“It’s suggesting a fairly high chance of dry conditions in northern Queensland, Victoria and South Australia.”
“There’s a high risk of a hot spring and early summer over the east of Australia, that obviously has implications for fire weather.”
Tuesday 01 September 2009
CLIMATE SUMMARY – NT REGIONAL OFFICE
Record breaking hot August.
The Northern Territory last month recorded its hottest August on record, with several long-term climate records broken. “Every weather reporting station in the Alice Springs district exceeded its previous hottest August, many by several degrees”, said Sam Cleland, manager of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Northern Territory Climate Services Centre.
“Furthermore, the hot August followed from warmer than usual June and July, and many stations in southern parts of the Territory also reported their warmest winter on record.” Mr Cleland said.
Further details can be found on the Bureau’s Climate Summaries page, at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/index.shtml
A direct link to the NT Summary is at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/nt/summary.shtml
How was climate in Australia during the LIA?
Just like Texas was this summer. Persistent high pressure systems and nothing to push them away. Normal thing that happens time to time.
In the Australian today we have two relevant stories, one saying snow has just fallen in Kalgoorlie (600k west Perth on the edge of the desert) , and the other saying the UN chief Moonbat is saying the planet will be ice free by 2030!
Now THAT’s a weather report.
Well here in VA we’ve had a surprisingly cold summer, so I guess its weird everywhere.
Maybe Australia’s warmer weather is the result of North America’s 08 winter temp failing to go south.
Yes,this is a hot dry country as witnessed by its dry sclerophyll vegetation,formed long before Europeans appeared on the scene. This link http://www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/trends/temperature.html shows a map of Australia ,with temperature anomalies mostly confined to the empty inland and patches on the west coast. No UHI here but the sensors thin out inland and extrapolation must have been used to fill in the data.
At least Blair Trewin talked about natural variability, because 200 years of European observation in Australia is not long enough to estimate heat and rainfall patterns but observing the flora and fauna will.
Too hot to be caused by climate change….
Weather still isn’t climate, no matter how many people would like to see it differently.
What’s interesting is the big contrast in weather patterns producing record cold periods followed by record warmth periods.
The big London Fire from 1666 for example took place during the LIA in the midst of an extremely hot and dry summer, followed by an harsh winter.
This is what the records state:
27th June(OS): heat wave began: mostly dry in London since the 12th(OS).
On 5th July, 1666(OS), Pepys writes: “extremely hot … oranges ripening in the open at Hackney”.
July 6th(OS): Beginning of period with occasional showers/heavy rains though often warm. July 26th(OS): Hail ‘ as big as walnuts ‘ in London and 27th(OS) on Suffolk coast.
The climatological summer (June, July & August) of 1666 was amongst the top 10 or so of warm summers in the CET series (began 1659).
The drought over these two months is noteworthy because it preceded the Great Fire of London; apparently the east wind, which prevailed during that period, had dried the wooden houses of London until they were like tinder. When the fire started early in September (12th/New Style), the east wind drove the flames before it and helped the fire to spread rapidly; smoke from this reached Oxford in the days thereafter. The prevailing weather was noted as ‘hot & dry’, and strong east Winds during the fire caused great problems with fire-fighting. On the 2nd/old-style (the first day of the fire), a ‘strong’ east wind is noted – Evelyn notes this as a “Fierce” eastern wind in a very dry season. It is not clear though whether the wind was caused by the fire, or was there anyway. However, Evelyn does note that there had been a….”long set of fair and warm weather”. On September 4th (14th new-style), Evelyn still notes: “The eastern wind still more impetuously driving the flames forward. “Later on the 5th(OS), the wind is noted as ‘abating’ — again not certain whether this was due to the fire burning itself out. In any case, this was effectively the end of the Great Fire.
15th September(OS): Foul weather in the southern North Sea began the breakdown of the long dry warm summer weather (see previous).
19th September(OS): The first considerable rainfall quenched London fire: rainy autumn followed.
1666/67
(winter & early spring)
A cold winter over western Europe / implied parts of Britain; cold weather, hard frost in London on 31st December; Thames covered with ice on the 1st January. Using the CET series [ ‘central’ England ], the overall figure for the three ‘classical’ winter months of December, January & February showed an anomaly of -1.5degC on the all-series mean. December was around a degree (C) below average, but January was bitterly cold, with an approximate anomaly of at least -3degC; February was about average, but this was followed by a very cold March (q.v. below).
March of 1667 was very cold: nominal CET (to nearest 0.5degC and perhaps inaccurate?) was 2degC, representing an anomaly on the ‘all-series’ mean of at least -3degC. Perhaps in the ‘top-5’ coldest March’s of the series.
To get a real feel for weather and weather events during the LIA it’s interesting to read through the data collected at this web site:
http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1650_1699.htm
Im in new zealand here, and im rather happy to say that this August gone was extremely mild here also. I dont miss the normal antarctic blasts! but its been a strange winter, it started a month early, it was the coldest driest may i can recall, and june and july were far from tropical. Im a farmer, and im absolutely stoked with the growth thus far this spring (-:
Winnipeg Canada recorded its ninth consecutive month of below normal temperatures. For whatever reason, normal is calculated based on the previous 30 years. There are records for this city dating back to the mid-1800s that indicate the longest cool trend was back in 1886 with 11 months below normal. So nine isn’t a record.
The situation here was like Australia in reverse. The jet stream dipped low and allowed more Arctic air into the region, just as it let warmer subtropical air into Australia. We’ll take the subtropical air anytime!!
The monthly report for Tasmania says it was the warmest on record. You could have fooled me. This was brought about by constant cloud cover at night, making minima a little higher than usual, and the daily average thus rises. The days were cold wet and very windy. More snow than most recent winters. Not what the average punter perceives as warm, but there you are- the record says it was warm.
See my post here:
http://australianclimatemadness.blogspot.com/2009/09/australian-heatwave-just-natural.html
Cheers,
Simon
Australian Climate Madness
I’m in NZ too.
Greenpeace are running a campaign – fronted by minor celebrities – for a 40% reduction in GHG over 11 years.
I don’t know if they realise that when you are cutting something in size then compound interest works against you and you have to save 4.4% this year and 4.4% next year and the year after and so on. Yes you need 11 x 4.4% savings to achieve 40%.
I’ve tried looking at what the ‘national carbon footprint’ is and the best I can find is
New Zealand’s Emissions Profile 1990–2007. There is a projection for 2008 and 2009 – no measurements. Even the 1990-2007 graph has the odd legend ‘actual estimate emissions…’. Actual or estimate ?
The overall trend is upwards between 1990 and 2007 – an increase of 22% over the period or an annual average of 1.2%.
My Country
I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror –
The wide brown land for me!
The stark white ring-barked forests,
All tragic to the moon,
The sapphire-misted mountains,
The hot gold hush of noon,
Green tangle of the brushes
Where lithe lianas coil,
And orchids deck the tree-tops,
And ferns the warm dark soil.
Core of my heart, my country!
Her pitiless blue sky,
When, sick at heart, around us
We see the cattle die –
But then the grey clouds gather,
And we can bless again
The drumming of an army,
The steady soaking rain.
Core of my heart, my country!
Land of the rainbow gold,
For flood and fire and famine
She pays us back threefold.
Over the thirsty paddocks,
Watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness
That thickens as we gaze.
An opal-hearted country,
A wilful, lavish land –
All you who have not loved her,
You will not understand –
Though earth holds many splendours,
Wherever I may die,
I know to what brown country
My homing thoughts will fly.
Dorothea McKellar
1907
Ron de Haan (17:38:15) : You answered my question. You said once: “Repeat after me…” about the fundamentals of water cycle.
Fact is, contrary what gwrs. say cold climate equals colder than normal sea waters which, again, do not evaporate as before and this equals drought.
Here in Melbourne Australia we have had a generally colder winter than the last 2 or 3 and for a change we have had normal rainfall in August. The last couple of years the rainfall has been dismal in spring, maybe it will be better with a warmer Indian ocean, though the weather bureau seems to think warmer oceans means lower rain.
Well, here in Western Sydney, it has been warm during the rather nice sunny, clear, days, and pretty cool at night. Sounds pretty normal to me.
A strongly negative Antarctic Oscillation has dominated this austral winter.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml
Not sure if that had anything to do with the mild Australian winter, but interesting to note.
Meanwhile the late-winter current temp at Votsok is a balmy -93 degrees F with drifting snow.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=vostok,%20antarctica&wuSelect=WEATHER
Natural variability. Subtropical highs can wreak hot dry havoc. Happened this summer in Texas. Happened the past few winters in the SE USA.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
we have to see the next year to conclude that it’s the result of climate change
The official report from the Bureau of Meteorology is to be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs18a.pdf . August was by a large margin the hottest on record for Australia, and maximum temperatures for the month set the largest positive temperature anomaly for any month. It was also Australia’s second warmest winter on record for mean temperature and hottest on record for maximum temperatures.
Wheat crops in parts of Australia have suffered damage due to extreme temperatures which widely approach 100F in winter (something unheard of previously).
It was also the hottest August on record for New Zealand.
Once again biased news reporting with an emphasis on global warming alarmism.
The media failed to acknowledge that these weather patterns are delineated into two distinct regions. Hot and dry central and northern Australia and a cold and wet southern region.
They fail to say that Tasmania has just come out of drought in August thanks to some very wet and cold weather, 6 inches of rain over the whole state and up to 20 inches of rain in parts of the west. Also widespread snow with closure of roads.
Victoria also has had average or above average rainfall and one of the best ski seasons is still powering on. Perisher and Thredbo both have 1.5 metres of snow, Falls Creak and Hotham have 1 metre.
In Australia you dont get this much snowpack in early September unless you have cold air and moisture coming from the south regularly. So the media reporting has been inaccurate, misleading and disengenious to the extreme.
All we are seeing is a movement of the southern weather patterns northwards. The high pressure systems are moving over central and northern Australia causing the interior to warm up. But the southerly lows and cold fronts are now moving north also to influence southern regions with wetter colder weather.
This is just a normal cycle of weather pattern coming out of winter into spring with similarities to the weather patterns of 1960’s and 70’s.
AGW=.6 C global rise in annual mean surface temperatures in a century.
Natural Variability=2.5 C above normal August in Australia.
So everyone is clear.
Interestingly, it looks as though the greatest maximum temperature anomalies were more widespread and of greater magnitude than those of minimum temps:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml
And MAN must be blazing hot down under. Ouch!
Woolfe – the snow in Kalgoolie was a snow making machine operating at the local school as a prize for winning a competition. Todays temp range for Kalgoolie is 5-16c. I doubt any natural snow will be falling.